Soft US CPI lit the fuse — Asia's memory complex went vertical overnight and the read-through into the US open is unambiguously risk-on.
The tape is carry-on, risk-on. Tuesday's cooler US inflation print eased Fed-hike fears, Wall Street rallied, and Asia repriced the chip trade hard. KOSPI closed +6.24% at 7,284 as SK Hynix (+8.83%) and Samsung (+6.27%) led a short-squeeze off the bruising early-July rout — memory/HBM demand plus a positioning unwind, not a fresh fundamental. Nikkei tacked on 1.49% to 68,751 on the same semi bid. Hang Seng lagged (+0.2%, ~24,214) and CSI 300 was barely green (~+0.3%) — China decoupled, trading its own book.
USD/JPY sits ~162.1, the yen pinned near 40-year lows with no concrete Tokyo intervention — carry stays funded and supportive of risk. The Korea memory rip reads straight through to Micron and the HBM chain, and SOX/QQQ should open bid after leaking 11% from the June peak with short interest at a three-year high. The squeeze has room.
The risk: TSMC reports tomorrow (July 16) with June revenue already +68% YoY — the whole semi rally leans on that guide, and any soft margin or second-half commentary flips SOX from squeeze to fade. Watch USD/JPY: a break below ~161.5 signals carry-off/intervention and turns yen strength into risk-off, killing the Nikkei bid.