Overnight risk-on: chips ripped across the region and US futures are following into a loaded earnings tape.
Asia closed strong. The Nikkei added over 3% Monday to 66,232, and futures overnight point to another leg to roughly 67,145 Tuesday. South Korea's KOSPI jumped 3.56% to 6,747, and the CSI 300 rose over 3% to 4,739, both riding a beat in regional export data. Hang Seng lagged, with futures last near 24,978 versus a 25,132 cash close, keeping the region's tape mixed rather than uniformly green. USD/JPY is pinned near 162.5, its weakest since 1996, and the yen stayed offered through the session. USD/CNH held a tight range, tracking dollar strength rather than making a fresh statement.
Read-through to the US: futures are firmer on a broad chip rebound, with the semiconductor ETF up sharply premarket and Nvidia's disclosed stake in Nebius adding fuel. GM and Hasbro both beat, and oil eased off Monday's spike on reports mediators are pushing a 10-day Iran ceasefire, taking pressure off the inflation trade. Prediction markets are leaning heavily toward a green open, and the setup favors continuation into a week stacked with megacap tech earnings.
The risk: Iran is on a tenth straight night of strikes, and any breakdown in ceasefire chatter flips oil and the chip-led bid fast. Fresh Canada tariff headlines are a secondary flashpoint if trade rhetoric escalates further.