Asia dumped tech and Korea into today's FOMC decision, while Wall Street futures shrug it off, for now.
Kospi cratered another 8% at Seoul's midday print, extending Tuesday's 10.8% collapse as AI-capex doubts hammered Samsung and SK Hynix, both down double digits again. Nikkei gave back early gains to close down 1.8% near 61,000, still absorbing Tuesday's near-4% drop plus a Kyushu earthquake that dinged autos and paper suppliers. Hang Seng was the lone holdout Tuesday, up modestly on tech and industrials, but broader China — CSI 300, Shanghai, Taiex — traded heavy as the regional chip unwind spread. USD/JPY sits pinned near 163.7-164, a fresh four-decade low for the yen, with BOJ Friday expected to hold and verbal intervention doing little. USD/CNH stayed firm, tracking a broadly bid dollar.
US futures are grinding higher into the 2pm ET Fed decision — no dot plot this meeting, FedWatch still leans hold at 3.50%-3.75% — with prediction markets pricing roughly 70% odds of a green open. The setup is fragile: Nasdaq sits inside a technical correction off its highs, chip names are the epicenter of the Asia selloff, and Microsoft, Meta and Qualcomm print after the bell. Warsh's 2:30pm press conference will move price more than the statement text.
The risk: a hawkish surprise or an inflation-focused tone from Warsh collides with an already-cracked semiconductor tape, turning the Kospi/Nikkei unwind into a US chip-led leg down instead of a contained regional event.