Monday's record-setting Wall Street rally is filtering through Asia on Iran de-escalation hopes and a still-hot AI trade, setting up a constructive but headline-sensitive US open.
Nikkei is firmer, tracking the S&P and Dow's fresh records, with USD/JPY holding a 157.5-158 band as chatter around coordinated US-Japan support keeps yen sellers cautious near the figure. Hang Seng is the laggard, softer as mainland tech underperforms, while CSI 300 sits flat-to-firm and USD/CNH holds a tight range with no sign of PBOC pushback on the fix. KOSPI remains the region's wildcard, still digesting recent whipsaw, though Samsung and SK Hynix should get a bid off the overnight US semis rip in Intel, Marvell, Micron and Broadcom.
US futures point to another leg toward records after the S&P's push near 7,740 and the Nasdaq 100's 3%+ surge, powered by Palantir's blowout print and a broad semis bid. Today's docket is thin on macro (factory orders, trade balance) but loaded on earnings, with AMD reporting after the close as the next test of the AI-capex narrative, alongside Caterpillar and McDonald's before the bell. Oil's slide on Strait of Hormuz optimism is the tailwind under the whole risk complex, easing margin and inflation anxiety into the print.
The risk: this is a crowded, one-way tape into a single-name catalyst — an AMD miss or cautious guide, especially with Cuban and Burry publicly flagging Nvidia/AI valuation risk, could unwind the semis leg fast. A break above 158 in USD/JPY risks fresh MOF/BOJ jawboning, and any wobble in the Iran-US Hormuz dialogue reverses the oil-driven risk-on bid overnight.