Asia opens the week split down the middle: Tokyo and Seoul push further into AI-capex records while Hong Kong and the mainland lag, and the dollar holds firm heading into a light US data slate.
Nikkei 225 sits just under record territory near 68,700 as chip and infrastructure names keep bid, and the Kospi extends its 2026 melt-up on Samsung and SK Hynix strength, up sharply again in early trade. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are the session's laggards, both soft as mainland growth data stays uneven and tech names give back some of the summer's regional rotation gains. USD/JPY is pinned near 160, keeping the yen close to its weakest levels in decades and leaving carry trades exposed to any risk-off jolt. USD/CNH holds a tight high-6.7 range as the PBOC manages a gradual, controlled drift rather than a clean break either way.
The read-through: Friday's US close was soft into strength, S&P 500 off 0.2% from a fresh record, Dow down 108 points, Nasdaq 100 down 0.1%, after University of Michigan sentiment missed badly and July retail sales posted their worst drop in over a year. Yet the broader tape stays constructive, with the Russell 2000 notching fresh highs and breadth improving. Monday's calendar is thin, Empire State and NAHB housing prints, ahead of Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings the following week, both likely to dominate positioning more than today's data.
The risk: a soft Empire State or NAHB print revives Friday's growth-scare narrative and pressures yields lower, dragging USD/JPY away from 160 and forcing a fast unwind of the yen-funded AI trade powering Nikkei and Kospi gains, spilling volatility into US semis at the open.