Asia closes green, US futures barely blink, and the whole tape is waiting on Wednesday's FOMC minutes rather than today's calendar.
Overnight, Asia carried its recent tech bid through the session: the Nikkei jumped 508 points to 69,220, the Shanghai Index rose 55 points to 3,982, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 336 points to 25,453. That follows the KOSPI's own break higher earlier this month, when a renewed rally in technology shares pushed South Korea's KOSPI into a recovery out of bear-market territory, keeping Samsung and SK Hynix supply chains the regional risk barometer. Yen: USD/JPY is consolidating between 158.60 and roughly 159.50, trading below both its 50- and 200-period moving averages, with markets speculating about a possible Bank of Japan rate hike in September or October. CNH is quiet, tracking the calmer regional mood rather than driving it.
Into the US open, S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.11%, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.34%, while Dow Jones futures dipped 0.09% and Russell 2000 futures dropped 0.01%, with the VIX remaining under 15 and Anthropic's 2028 revenue forecast of $190-200 billion keeping the AI complex bid. Polymarket odds lean bullish for the open, but breadth is narrow, and Wednesday's July FOMC minutes are the highlight of this week's economic calendar against a heavy retail-earnings docket.
The risk: a decisive USD/JPY push through 160 without follow-up intervention, or a Dow/Russell breakdown that exposes this as a single-sector rally rather than a broad risk-on move.