Overnight Asia traded without conviction, consistent with month-end rebalancing and a US session shortened by the Labor Day holiday later this week.
Nikkei 225 chopped either side of flat as exporters faced a firmer yen, with USD/JPY sitting in the mid-to-high 146s after last week's drift lower on BOJ rate-hike repricing and soft US yields following the PCE print. Hang Seng and CSI 300 diverged modestly, Hong Kong tech underperforming on renewed regulatory and property-sector headlines out of the mainland, while A-shares held up better on state-fund support and a steady PBOC fix; USD/CNH sat pinned near 7.13-7.15 as the central bank continues to lean against depreciation ahead of the Golden Week calendar. KOSPI lagged the region, chip names giving back some of last week's gains after a mixed Micron-adjacent semiconductor tape and profit-taking into month-end fixing flows. Cross-asset, Treasury yields were little changed in Asia hours and Brent held a narrow range, suggesting the region was digesting rather than extending the late-August US risk-on drift.
Read-through to the US open is muted-to-cautiously-constructive: futures are flat to marginally firmer, with the desk focused on today's ISM manufacturing print and any fresh Fed-speak as the next catalyst after last week's cooler core PCE cemented September cut odds near-certain. Month-end rebalancing flows could add noise to the first hour, and a holiday-shortened week ahead of Friday's payrolls keeps position-sizing conservative. Dollar softness (DXY sub-98) remains the dominant cross-asset thread supporting EM and commodity currencies.
The risk: a hot ISM prices-paid or hawkish Fed comment revives the higher-for-longer trade, snapping the dollar higher, pressuring USD/JPY carry unwinds, and dragging Asia tech and US futures lower into a thin holiday-week tape.