Asia opens on its back foot, tracking Wall Street's Sunday-night futures slide as an AI-IPO gut check and a fresh oil leg higher erase Friday's relief bounce heading into a Fed meeting where the base case is now a hike, not a cut.
Nikkei and Kospi carry the most overnight risk given their semiconductor weight after last week's Samsung and SK Hynix-led surge; Nasdaq-100 futures down over 1% on OpenAI shelving its IPO plans and Anthropic's public AI-safety warning should pressure the same complex in Tokyo and Seoul. Hang Seng and CSI 300 look comparatively insulated, anchored by policy support and a steadier yuan fix. USD/JPY has round-tripped hard, sliding from the mid-150s toward 153.5 on rate-hike and safe-haven yen demand before a brief pop past 154 on Friday's hot PPI print; USD/CNH sits a quieter beta play just above 7.15, tracking the yen rather than leading it.
Into the US open, futures are soft across the board -- Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all lower after Friday's bounce (Dow +509, S&P/Nasdaq +0.9%) -- with oil back near cycle highs on the Iran conflict and CME FedWatch pricing roughly 86% odds of a 25bp hike Wednesday, alongside August retail sales due the same morning. Positioning into the print is thin and two-sided, with no major data or earnings to anchor Monday's tape.
The risk: a hike delivered with dovish, one-and-done language, or any Iran de-escalation headline, flips this fast into a relief rally; a hawkish surprise or oil pushing through fresh highs sends the AI-led futures weakness straight through the cash open.