Asia is trading the Trump-Xi truce and a firmer yen while US futures sit within striking distance of record highs heading into Wednesday's PCE print.
Nikkei holds a rising trend channel with support near 60,000 and resistance near 72,000, and Kospi's tech melt-up keeps running on Samsung and SK Hynix. Hang Seng is the regional laggard, technically negative with support near 20,000 and resistance near 25,200, while CSI 300 chops in the mid-4,500s on cautious mainland flows. USD/JPY has slid back to roughly 157 from July's 163.87 high after Japan's finance minister flagged Trump's concerns about yen weakness, snapping a five-session losing streak and building carry-unwind risk. USD/CNH stays a beta play on the yen, hugging a tight band as the PBOC leans on the fixing.
Wall Street rallied Friday as the Trump-Xi summit concluded and oil dropped 2%, with SPY closing at 771.35 and SPX within 0.7% of a fresh high even as the 10-year spiked, a divergence BofA is comparing to 2022. That sits atop the Fed's hawkish September 16 hike to 3.75%-4.00% and a UMich sentiment print that plunged to 47.8, second-lowest on record, with year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.6%. This week's docket, Tuesday confidence and JOLTS, then Wednesday's ADP, final Q2 GDP and August core PCE, is the last major read before the next FOMC.
The risk: a hot core PCE Wednesday revives hike fears, pressures the 10-year higher, and forces a duration/tech drawdown despite the Trump-Xi tailwind; a cooler print, or fresh BoJ/MOF jawboning that snaps the yen carry trade, flips the tape hard the other way.