Asia traded two different tapes overnight: Seoul ripped, Tokyo and Hong Kong sagged, and the whole region is pricing a Fed that may hike into slowing growth.
Nikkei slid toward 65,500 and Topix lost 1.4% to 4,055 as SoftBank, Mitsubishi UFJ and Toyota all fell 2%+, dragged by US 10-year yields pushing above 5.2% and 30-years near 5.55%. Hang Seng eased 0.8% to 25,440 in a holiday-thinned tape ahead of Golden Week, with a fresh HK listing dropping as much as 8.5% on debut. CSI 300 held firmer, up 0.6% to 4,691 on fresh state buying support. KOSPI was the outlier, ripping 3.7% to 6,579 on semis strength. USD/JPY sits near 157.3-157.5, capped by fresh verbal intervention warnings from Tokyo even as a former BOJ official flagged an October hike. USD/CNH holds a tight 6.70-6.73 range under PBOC management.
The read-through: Monday's US close was a warning shot, S&P down 0.8%, Dow off 347 points to 51,481, Nasdaq down 1.1%, with 30-year yields at their highest since 2002 as oil spiked on the US-Iran Hormuz standoff. Fed funds futures now price roughly 70% odds of an October hike even as consumer confidence cratered to a 12-year low and JOLTS openings missed. Wednesday brings Core PCE, income/spending, final Q2 GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI; Micron reports the same day for the AI-demand read; NFP lands Friday.
The risk: a fresh Hormuz breakdown or a hot PCE print reignites the hike bid, sending yields back toward cycle highs and hitting long-semis/long-KOSPI-style trades; a soft PCE or a genuine Hormuz deal headline flips Treasuries and unclogs the risk-on impulse fast.