Risk came off as a rotation, not a rout — energy caught a bid, semis got dumped, and the tape closed lower with volatility oddly calm.
The S&P 500 finished at 7,515, off 0.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.55% to 25,873 as chips led the tape lower. NVDA fell 3.5% while SK Hynix and Samsung cratered overnight in Asia after Samsung's record profit failed to hold. The Dow held up best, near flat, cushioned by energy as WTI ripped roughly 9% toward $78 on the US-Iran escalation. Trump reinstated an Iran blockade and floated a 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz cargo, sending oil bid and growth-tech offered. TSLA -3.7% and META -1.4% lagged; AAPL +0.4%, MSFT +1.7%, AMZN +1.2% and Biogen +3% held green.
The tell was vol: the VIX slipped about 3% to near 15.3 even on a red day. This was a rotation into energy and out of high-beta tech, not a hedging panic — dealers still look long gamma up here, keeping realized vol pinned and the damage concentrated rather than systemic. Bitcoin dropped about 3% to near $62k, consistent with risk-off at the margin.
The risk: Q2 bank earnings kick off tomorrow, with JPMorgan and peers setting the tone for whether the first-half rally extends or stalls. A soft print stacked on another Iran or Hormuz headline would turn today's orderly rotation into broader de-risking; a clean bank beat with oil cooling flips it back risk-on fast.