Futures are green on yesterday's cool CPI, but two hawkish catalysts today can flip the tape before lunch.
SPY trades +0.25% at 753.68 and QQQ +0.50% at 723.30 pre-market, a relief bid off June CPI printing -0.4% headline with core flat, well under the 3.8% feared. That cut immediate July hike odds under new Chair Warsh. SPX sits near 7540, above the 7497 zero-gamma level, so dealers stay long gamma and pin realized vol — for now. The 7505 put wall is the shelf; lose it and gamma flips negative, opening air toward a vol expansion.
The offset is stacked at 8:30 a.m.: core PPI is seen accelerating 4.9% to 5.2% on Iran-driven energy — the pipeline inflation Warsh said he has 'no tolerance' for. He testifies to Senate Banking at 10 a.m. A hot PPI plus a hawkish gavel reheats the hike trade CPI just cooled. Above the 7580 call wall, upside turns sticky into OpEx.
The risk: a hot PPI or an unambiguously hawkish Warsh snaps SPX back under 7497 into negative gamma, where dealers sell weakness and the relief rally unwinds fast; a cool PPI and a dovish tone does the reverse and unpins 7580.