Risk-off into the US cash open — a second straight day of semiconductor selling plus fresh Iran headlines have futures lower and the VIX back near 18.5.
The AI-capex trade is unwinding at the margin. Memory names (Micron, WDC, Seagate, SanDisk) are down 4.6–6.5% pre-market, dragging the SOX to a two-month low and its worst week since March 2025. Netflix added to the tape by guiding Q3 revenue and EPS light. SPY sits near 744 (-0.9%) and QQQ near 692 (-2.0%), with the Nasdaq set to lead lower.
Positioning is the tell. SPX has slid toward its put-wall zone around 7500 (SPY ~740) and dealer gamma has thinned into flip territory — the vol-suppression bid that pinned the tape all month is fading, so a break lower gets amplified rather than bought. Overhead, SPY 748–750 is the gamma flip and call-wall cap. Today macro slate — housing starts 8:30a, industrial production 9:15a, Michigan sentiment prelim 10a — makes sentiment the swing print, while oil stays bid on Strait of Hormuz risk.
The risk: this is a crowded-trade unwind, not a macro break. A chip stabilization and an SPY reclaim of 748–750 with VIX back under 17 flips the read to buy-the-dip and squeezes the short-gamma fear — bulls need that reclaim to hold before the close.