Futures are green but the tape is fighting the bond market, not confirming it.
Wednesday's session was ugly into the close, with the S&P shedding roughly 1.5% and the Dow down nearly 700 points after the Fed held rates but three officials dissented for a hike, sending the 30-year yield to its highest level since 2007 above 5.2% and the 10-year near 4.68-4.70%. Overnight the script flipped on single names: Microsoft ripped premarket on cloud strength, dragging Nasdaq 100 futures up about 1.5% and pulling beaten-down chip names off the mat, while Meta sold off hard on a wider capex range and monetization doubts. SPY and QQQ are both bid in the premarket, but this is a relief bounce inside a higher-yield regime, not a trend change.
Today's calendar is loaded before the bell: Q2 GDP advance, weekly claims, and June core PCE all print at 8:30am, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge landing squarely into a market already repricing hawkish risk. Amazon and Apple report after the close, with the tape needing both to avoid the capex-anxiety trap that hit Meta. Oil is firm near 84-85 on renewed Iran-related strikes, adding an inflation-and-geopolitics kicker that keeps the long end offered.
The risk: a hot PCE print or a soft GDP number both cut the same way — they push yields higher and force gamma dealers to sell into strength, so any early pop can invert fast if the 10-year breaks decisively above 4.70% or Apple/Amazon repeat Meta's capex spook after hours.