Two very different earnings reactions are canceling each other out and the index is chopping around flat into the cash open.
Thursday's session closed strong, S&P up about 1.7% to 7,437 and the Nasdaq up over 3% as chipmakers ripped and Microsoft added roughly $450 billion in a single session. Overnight follow-through was fierce, Korea's Kospi surged as much as 18% on an SK Hynix limit-up move, and Nasdaq 100 futures were bid over 0.9% pre-bell. That optimism cracked once Apple's disappointing forward guidance hit, the stock down sharply in its worst post-earnings reaction in over a decade, while Amazon offset it with a blowout quarter and a double-digit pop. Add a 10-year yield pushing to its highest level since January 2025 and the tape has round-tripped from up over 1% to roughly flat by mid-morning.
Vol regime is elevated single-stock, contained index — mega-cap earnings dispersion is doing the damage while SPX realized vol stays orderly. Dealer gamma context is indicative only today, but positioning likely sits long-gamma into the 7,430-7,440 area given the prior day's rally, meaning dip-buying and range-compression near current levels, with upside chase capped until spot clears the 7,470-7,500 zone. Today's docket is thin: Employment Cost Index at 8:30 and final Michigan sentiment at 10, both second-tier next to the earnings tape and Wednesday's Fed hold.
The risk: yields. A break above the recent 10-year high reprices the entire AI-capex-and-multiple trade regardless of what Amazon or the chip complex print, and month-end rebalancing flows could exaggerate any afternoon reversal.