Futures are sliding into the open as an oil spike and multi-year-high yields on collapsing Iran ceasefire talks undercut last week's record run in stocks.
The S&P 500 closed Monday at 7,745, off 0.5% and roughly 1% below last week's record push through 7,800, while the Nasdaq Composite settled at 26,645. Futures are pointing lower again this morning, with S&P contracts down near 0.4-0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures off closer to 0.8-1.1% as Trump's rejection of extending the ceasefire and Tehran's threat of a fully offensive posture around the Strait of Hormuz sends Brent toward $91 and WTI near $84. With live dealer gamma unavailable this run, treat levels as indicative: SPY's flip sits near 773, call wall clustering 780-785 off last week's record supply, put support 765-768; QQQ's comparable gamma flip runs near 715-720 with resistance into 735-740. A break of the SPY flip opens the door to negative gamma and faster downside.
Today's data slate — housing starts, import prices at 8:30, industrial production at 9:15, pending home sales at 10 — is secondary to geopolitics and the bond move, with the 10-year near 4.73% and the 30-year holding above 5.3%, its highest since 2007. HD and Baidu earnings land ahead of Wednesday's FOMC minutes, where three dissents in favor of a hike keep Warsh's path unsettled even as futures price roughly two-thirds odds of a September hold.
The risk: a Strait of Hormuz disruption or a hawkish minutes surprise Wednesday turns this controlled pullback into a bond-led de-grossing event, especially with VIX already firming near 16 after positioning stayed call-heavy into last week's highs.