Futures are flat-to-mixed into PPI morning, with the tape more hostage to oil and yields than to any dealer hedging flow.
Dow futures are modestly bid while Nasdaq futures lag, a mirror of Wednesday's session that left the S&P and Nasdaq lower for a third straight day. Semis are the one bright spot — Qualcomm's AWS tie-up lifted the group, with Nvidia, Broadcom and Intel all firmer — but that strength is fighting a tape still digesting last week's hot payrolls print, which reignited hike chatter just as the Fed heads into its September 15-16 meeting. The 10-year sits above 4.85%, a multi-year high, and Brent has pushed past $102 as the Iran conflict grinds on, both acting as a tax on multiples regardless of what dealers are doing underneath.
With live GEX down this run, treat levels as indicative: SPX/SPY are sitting almost exactly on top of the modeled gamma flip near 7660/766, meaning the market is barely positive gamma — a clean break either way can accelerate as hedging flips from dampening to pro-cyclical. Call resistance clusters near 7800/780, put support has likely been dragged down toward 7500/750 after the pullback. QQQ faces resistance in the 718-730 zone with thin support below.
The risk: a hot PPI or Friday's CPI pushing yields decisively through 4.90% would harden hike odds and pressure the flip from below; a soft print, or any de-escalation in the Gulf that knocks oil lower, unwinds the hike scare and lets dealers rebuild the positive-gamma cushion into next week's FOMC.