Futures are soft and cautious as Wall Street heads into the Fed's two-day meeting with crude near four-figure levels and the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut.
The S&P 500 has now logged a fourth straight lower session, closing near 7,600 with SPY around 760, as surging oil and sagging AI/chip names offset energy strength; the Nasdaq has underperformed on the same rotation. VIX has jumped off the mid-teens into the 17 handle, a clear pre-event repricing rather than a broad panic bid.
With live gamma unavailable, read positioning off the tape: elevated implieds and thin realized ranges into a binary catalyst usually mean dealers are long gamma near spot and short further out, so expect chop inside a wide band rather than trend, with SPY flip zone near 755-758 and an indicative call wall around 770-775 capping rallies. QQQ support sits near the 590-595 shelf where dip-buyers have defended tech this month. Today is FOMC day one — no headlines expected until Wednesday's 2pm statement, SEP dot plot and press conference — so flow stays thin and geopolitics-driven, with desks watching for any Hormuz de-escalation or fresh tanker strikes.
The risk: a hawkish 25bp hike confirmation paired with sticky oil breaks support and forces a vol-up, gamma-negative slide, while any ceasefire chatter or a dovish hold flips this into a sharp risk-on short-covering squeeze.