Risk is offered at the cash open, with oil and yields spiking on renewed Hormuz risk right as markets walk into the week's PCE/NFP gauntlet.
SPY is soft premarket near 768-769 against Friday's 771.35 close, QQQ off roughly 0.6% back toward 740 after closing at 744.45 Friday. The move followed Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent toward 107 and WTI spiking over 4% intraday, while the 10-year pushed toward the 5.2% area, a multi-decade high. NVDA is a bright spot, up near 1.8% premarket after tacking on a further 150 billion to its buyback, taking the total to 235 billion, though AMD and MRVL are soft on reports OpenAI paused training on some advanced models.
No live gamma feed this morning, so treat strikes as indicative: prior swing-high supply for SPY sits in the 775-780 zone with QQQ resistance near 745, while the 768-770 area in SPY and 738-740 in QQQ look like the near-term pivot/flip. A break below invites acceleration given yields at cycle highs; dealers are likely running short gamma into the print, which argues for wider two-way ranges rather than a pinned tape.
The risk: Bowman speaks at 8:15am with Cook and Barkin also on tape today, but the real catalyst stack builds through the week — JOLTS and consumer confidence Tuesday, ADP and PCE Wednesday, ISM Thursday, and nonfarm payrolls Friday, with Micron and Nike earnings testing AI and consumer demand. Any further Hormuz escalation keeps oil and yields bid and pressures duration-sensitive growth; a dovish data surprise or de-escalation headline flips the tape and lets the NVDA buyback bid carry Nasdaq back above the flip.