Futures diverge again: NQ +0.3%, ES +0.2%, Dow soft as chips rally into Micron earnings while cyclicals eat the geopolitical risk premium.
SPY closed 765.61 Monday after a 0.86% S&P drop and sits ~766 premarket; QQQ closed 737.67 and is bid back to ~740. The setup is classic rotation, not conviction — VIX popped 8% to 16, the 10-year spiked to a 19-year high near 5.27% and the 30-year touched 5.55% on renewed US-Iran friction after Trump denied offering sanctions relief overnight even as Tehran signaled openness to talks. Oil stayed elevated on the headlines. Dealer gamma is unconfirmed this run, but with SPY chopping either side of 765 post-selloff, expect a flip zone right around Monday's close and resistance stacking toward last week's highs near 775-780; QQQ support sits at Monday's 731 low with the premarket high as the level to reclaim for continuation.
Catalysts: Consumer Confidence and JOLTS print at 10am, both secondary to Thursday's PCE and Friday's jobs report, which now matter more given CME pricing has swung toward a 70%+ chance of another Fed hike in October rather than a cut. Nike reports today, Micron drops Wednesday after the close and is the real tell for the chip-led bounce. AI-safety jitters (OpenAI's paused training, a leaked Anthropic IPO prospectus) are capping enthusiasm even as AMD's World Labs buy keeps the AI trade alive.
The risk: a hot JOLTS/confidence print or fresh Iran escalation headline re-couples yields and equities to the downside — that's what turns this rotation into a real risk-off leg rather than a tech-led dip-buy.